Do Full Moons Make Police Nights Crazier?

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The dreaded full moon.

For ages, folklore has wrapped it in mystery with tales of werewolves, bizarre transformations, and nights when anything can happen. Ask anyone who’s worked in policing or healthcare, and they’ll tell you the same thing: “Full moons are wild.” More fights, more calls, more weirdness. People “go off the rails,” they’ll say, as if the moon flips some hidden switch in the human brain.

But let’s be honest, most nights the only monsters you’re dealing with are drunk bar patrons, loud raccoons, and Scott the Teen Wolf.

via GIPHY

The theory goes something like this: if the moon can control the tides, maybe it tugs on the human brain too. Or maybe the extra moonlight makes it easier for criminals to see what they’re doing.

So here’s the question: Does the full moon actually bring out our inner werewolf and unleash chaos on law enforcement? Or is it just superstition that refuses to die?

Fortunately, science has an answer.

What the Research Says (Spoiler: It’s Not the Moon)

A recent study by Joseph A. Schafer, Sean P. Varano, John P. Jarvis, and Jeffrey M. Cancino tested the full moon legend using five years of San Antonio Police Department data from 2001–2005. Researchers paired over **130,000 nighttime calls for service (**things like assaults, burglaries, drug offenses, and traffic incidents) with the lunar phase that night.

They controlled for all the things that have been shown to make crime fluctuate: weather, season, day of the week, temperature, and even how long the sun was up.

Then they asked a simple question:

“Does the full moon increase calls for service or criminal incidents?”

The short answer: Nope.

Across nearly every category (violence, theft, traffic, drugs) the moon had no significant effect.

There were a couple of small, random blips. Burglary ticked up a bit citywide as the moon got fuller. Drug and vice calls actually went down in entertainment districts during full moons. But given that several other variables were tested, those outliers are more likely coincidence than cosmic influence.

In plain English: the moon didn’t do it.

What Does Influence Crime

The study did find a few things that actually move the needle and none of them involve lunar phases:

• Weekends (Friday–Sunday): Crime levels were consistently higher across all categories, especially in entertainment districts. Turns out, it’s not the moon, it’s the weekend crowd.
• Warm weather: As temperatures rose, so did crime in most categories citywide. In entertainment districts, disturbances were the only type that spiked with heat, while non-entertainment areas saw crime drop during the colder winter months.
• Rain: Rain generally lowered crime. Exceptions: entertainment district burglaries ticked up slightly with disturbances going down.
• Longer daylight hours: More daylight was linked to increases in burglary and theft in non-entertainment areas, and to higher drugs/vice and overall calls for service citywide.

In short, if your shift feels busier, check the calendar or the forecast not the moon phase.

Why the Full Moon Myth Persists: Confirmation Bias

So why do full moons feel so wild if the data says otherwise?

Because when we expect chaos, we notice chaos. That’s confirmation bias in action.

If you walk into a shift thinking, “It’s a full moon, brace yourself,” every odd call or strange encounter reinforces that belief. But you forget about all the quiet full moons when nothing happens or the crazy nights that weren’t full moons. Our brains love patterns, even imaginary ones.

And in policing, where humor and superstition help get through long nights, it’s easy for those stories to stick.

What Officers Can Actually Take Away

Here’s the practical lesson:

If your shift feels cursed, it’s probably not lunar gravity. It’s likely:

• A hot night with lots of people outside.
• A Friday or Saturday near the bars.
• Or just random chance. Chaos is kind of built into the job.

So next time someone says, “Oh no, it’s a full moon!” you can smile and shake your head.

Final Thought

Full moons may light up the sky, but not your call logs. The real forces driving police work are human, social, and seasonal not celestial.

Still, if believing the moon brings the madness gives you a laugh on a long night shift… go ahead and blame the werewolves.

via GIPHY

Enjoyed this post?

Subscribe below and let me know which topics you want to hear more about. It only takes a minute.

If you found this helpful, share it with your team or on your socials. It helps more people make sense of research that matters.

Carlee Ruiz

Carlee Ruiz is the founder of PoliceResearchHub, a platform that turns academic research into practical insights for law enforcement. She brings seven years of experience as a crime analyst and justice researcher, with a focus on evidence based policing, gun violence prevention, and public safety strategy. Carlee currently works as a researcher at National Policing Institute, where she supports evaluations of law enforcement programs and criminal justice initiatives across the country. Through PoliceResearchHub, she aims to make research easier to understand and more useful for the people doing the work on the ground.